Week of December 23 - 27, 2019

Maureen Kelliher, CFA

Maureen Kelliher, CFA

December 31, 2019

2019

Weekly Macro Updates

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Dec 22) 62.3 actual, 61.1 prior
Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Dec) 128.5 est., 126.5 actual, 126.8 prior: R+
Conf. Board Present Situation (Dec) 170.0 actual, 166.6 prior: R-
Conf. Board Expectations (Dec) 97.4 actual, 100.3 prior: R+
Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 21) 220k est., 222k actual, 235k prior: R+
Continuing Claims (Dec 14) 1688k est., 1719K actual, 1725k prior: R+
New Home Sales (Nov) -0.1% est., 1.3% actual, -2.7% prior: R-
Pending Home Sales NSA YoY (Nov) 7.4% est., 5.6% actual, 4.4% prior
Durable Goods Orders (Nov P) 1.5% est., -2.0% actual, 0.2% prior: R-
Durables Ex Transportation (Nov P) 0.2% est., 0.0% actual, 0.3% prior: R+
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Nov P) 0.1% est., 0.1% actual, 1.1% prior
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Dec) 0.0 est., -3.2 actual, -1.3 prior
Retail Inventories MoM (Nov) 0.1% est., -0.7% actual, 0.1% prior: R-
Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov P) 0.2% est., 0.0% actual, 0.0% prior: R-
 

 Strong or Improving
 Inconclusive or lacking trend
 Weak or declining
R+ Revised up
R- Revised down

Directional change based on general
long-term tends.

Capital Market Implications

In spite of ongoing concerns over trade, slowing growth and political uncertainty, the consumer remained resilient in 2019, with the most recent comfort, confidence and expectations readings continuing to be high.  Unemployment claims continue to track at low levels and new home sales have rebounded.  Durable goods orders were unexpectedly weak, driven by a downturn in defense orders.  Excluding defense, orders rose 0.8%.  Non defense capital goods shipments were neutral versus expectations.

Stocks rose last week and are set to end 2019 with strong gains, with the S&P 500 Index on track to return over 30% for the year.  Both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow were up over 0.6% last week while small cap stocks were slightly negative.  Growth stocks did better than value, as the Russell 1000 Growth Index gained 0.9% versus 0.2% for the comparable value index.  International markets are set to rise over 20% in 2019; both developed and emerging markets had strong gains last week.  Bonds also saw strong performance in 2019, with the aggregate index up almost 9.0% year-to-date.  Corporates have seen the strongest performance in 2019, gaining over 14% so far, while municipal markets have risen over 7.0%.