Week of April 1 - 5, 2019

Maureen Kelliher, CFA

Maureen Kelliher, CFA

April 9, 2019

Weekly Economic Review

Weekly Macro Updates

ADP Employment Change (Mar) 175k est., 129k actual, 197k prior: R+
Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.8% est., 3.8% actual, 3.8% prior
Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 30) 215k est., 202k actual, 212k prior: R+
Continuing Claims (Mat 23) 1752k est., 1717k actual, 1755k prior: R-
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 177k est., 196k actual, 33k prior: R+
Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Mar) 10k est., -6k actual, 1k prior: R-
Change in Private Payrolls (Mar) 177k est., 182k actual, 28k prior: R+
Underemployment Rate (Mar) 7.3% actual, 7.3% prior
Labor Force Participation Rate (Mar) 63.2% est., 63.0% actual, 63.2% prior
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Mar) 3.4% est., 3.2% actual, 3.4% prior
Durable Goods Orders (Feb P) -1.8% est., -1.6% actual, 0.1% prior: R-
Capital Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Feb P) -0.1% est., 0.0% actual, 1.0% prior: R+
Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Mar) 16.80m est., 17.50m actual, 16.56M prior

 Strong or Improving
 Inconclusive or lacking trend
 Weak or declining
R+ Revised up
R- Revised down

Capital Market Implications

Last week’s employment releases reaffirmed continuing growth, following tepid February numbers that sparked concerns of a slowdown.  While manufacturing job growth was down as companies were impacted by tariffs and slowing global growth, hiring was strong across other sectors; the leisure and hospitality sector in particular benefitted from a healthy consumer.  Wage growth was a high point, as wages continued to improve, up more than 3.0% over the last six months.  Labor force participation and the underemployment rate remained steady, highlighting the continued tight labor market.   

Stocks continued their 2019 rally last week, with positive returns across both domestic and international markets.  The S&P 500 Index was up 2.1%, while the Dow gained 2.0%.  Smaller cap stocks outperformed large caps, with the Russell 2000 Index returning 2.8%.  Growth did better than value, with the Russell 1000 Growth Index up 2.4% versus 1.9% for the Russell 1000 Value Index.  International stocks were in line or ahead of the U.S., with developed markets gaining 2.0% while emerging markets appreciated 2.6%.  Bonds were generally down for the week, with the aggregate index falling -0.3%.  Corporate bonds were off -0.2% while munis were down -0.3%.  High yield bonds traded more in line with stocks, gaining 0.5%.