Week in Review with Maureen Kelliher

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Each week, Investment Officer and resident economist Maureen Kelliher comments on investment trends and economic news which impact the financial markets.

 

 

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Capital Market Implications for the Week of January 9 - 13, 2017

Once again, the majority of last week’s economic releases were positive. Car buyers and online shoppers lifted U.S. retail sales in December, as overall sales advanced 0.6 percent for the month. Consumer sentiment held steady at an elevated level during December while producer prices and import prices rose. Global inflationary pressures continued to build, as purchasing manager index output prices increased in China, the U.S., and the United Kingdom last month.

Although the major domestic stock markets stalled last week, international equity markets demonstrated strength. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0.4 percent while the S&P 500 Index remained relatively unchanged. On the other hand, the NASDAQ, considered a gauge of the technology sector, hit an all-time high. The week’s best performing equity sector was consumer discretionary, which increased 0.8 percent. Lagging sectors included real estate and energy stocks, off -2.2 and -1.9 percent, respectively. International stocks, as represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, improved for the second consecutive week and are now ahead 2.6 percent for the year thus far. The bond market also had another good week, as yields and the dollar retreated. For week overall, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.2 percent, U.S. corporate bonds gained 0.3 percent, high yield bonds increased 0.2 percent, while ten-year municipal bonds performed the best, up 0.8 percent.

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Wealth Management Disclosure

 

 

Weekly Macro Updates

 

  • Initial Unemployment Claims (week of 1/7) 255k est., 247k actual, 237k prior
  • Continuing Claims (week of 12/31) 2087k est., 2087k actual, 2116k prior
  • JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) 5500 est., 5522 actual, 5451 prior
  • Import Price Index YoY (Dec) 1.8% est., 1.8% actual, 0.1% prior
  • Producer Price Ind. Final Demand YoY (Dec) 1.6% est., 1.6% actual, 1.3% prior
  • PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec) 1.5% est., 1.6% actual, 1.6% prior
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM (Dec) 0.7% est., 0.6% actual, 0.2% prior
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas MoM (Dec) 0.4% est., 0.0% actual, 0.3% prior
  • Univ. of MI Cons. Sentiment Survey (Jan P) 98.5 est., 98.1 actual, 98.2 prior
  • Univ. of MI Current Conditions (Dec P) 111.5 est., 112.5 actual, 111.9 prior
  • Univ. of MI Expectations (Dec P) 89.8 est., 88.9 actual, 89.5 prior
  • Univ. of MI 5-10 Year Inflation Expect. (Dec) 2.5% actual, 2.3% prior
  • Empire Manufacturing (Jan) 8.5 est., 6.5 actual, 7.6 prior
  • Business Inventories (Nov) 0.6% est., 0.7% actual, -0.1% prior-R+
  • Strong or Improving
  • Inconclusive or lacking trend
  • Weak or declining

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